Keeping perspective while the debt ceiling “crisis” continues ….

While Congress and the President continue the political battle on the “debt crisis,” here is more for proper perspective:

First, the yield on Treasuries if falling, not rising. If there were a serious issue about the US ability to repay, then US bonds would see high rates. That is, unlike Greece, which is in real trouble, or even Spain or Portugal, the US is still able to borrow at very favorable rates. So, the markets in general, up to this point, believe that the “crisis” has nothing to do with the economy or the strength of the US relative to other nations.

Second, the debt issues have come about after the extended bull market ended in 2008. That is, high stock values and prosperous markets yielded high tax revenues. With this, there were years of budget surpluses, even after tax cuts were enacted. But, post 2008, that has changed. The change in the economy and stock values, even with some markets approaching their 2008 high points, has led to much lower tax revenues.

Finally, from Floyd Norris in the New York Times, we have this summary:

“If rationality does prevail, the debt ceiling will be raised. For that matter, there is no good reason to have a debt ceiling other than to give politicians a chance to grandstand. The important decisions for Congress and the White House concern spending and taxing. Borrowing, or paying back debt as happened for a couple of years before the Bush tax cuts, is a result of the interplay of those decisions and the state of the economy.”
And
“There is a risk that many analysts now are making the opposite mistake. Deficits have skyrocketed in recent years for reasons that are clearly temporary, or that will be temporary if the economy recovers. In some of the debate, the short-term problems are mixed up with longer-term demographic concerns caused by the aging and retirement of the baby boomers and the rising costs of Medicare, the health insurance program for Americans over the age of 65.”

So, with fingers crossed for the prevailing of rationality soon, that is my update. Let me know if you have questions or comments

Financial impact of the budget plan and planning for tax reform

First, the on-going budget battle in Washington, or “the debt ceiling crisis,” should be kept in perspective. The battle is more a game of chicken, where one side will eventually blink and the ceiling increased. This political battle is not likely to have an impact on investments, as the markets have already accounted for the outcome, as usually happens well before the event. In fact, by way of example, this is much like 1989 when the municipal bonds of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts we downgraded to a rating just above that for Louisiana. Many investors panicked. However, the underlying economy had not changed. Therefore, the smart investment strategy at the time was to buy Massachusetts bonds. After Governor Weld came to office, the rating went back up and investors who held or bought the bonds had a nice profit. The equivalent today would be to buy treasuries.

Second, as it is shaping up, the deficit reduction package contains major tax reform provisions as well as huge spending cuts. This could ultimately be good for the economy and our markets, as it would bring corporate tax rates in line with other countries, falling in the 23 to 29% range. However, the base would be broadened, possibly including depreciation over longer periods, eliminating deductions for domestic production and trimming or dropping the R&D credit.
The tax overhaul raises substantial revenue, $1 trillion over 10 years. However, this less than half the amount that would have been raised by simply letting the Bush tax expire as scheduled.

New Tax Law: Many specifics will not be known until a new tax law is enacted, which is not likely to occur this year. What Kiplinger’s Tax Letter and others are predicting the following: Instead of six tax rates or brackets, with the highest at 35%, three are expected: one in the 8 to 12% range, the next in the 14 to 22% range, and the in the last in the 23 to 29% range. The Alternative Minimum Tax (“AMT”) would be repealed. The earned income credit and child credit would remain.

To do all this, there will be pain: itemized deductions would be significantly reformed, changing home interest and property tax deductions as well as charitable deductions. For example, deduction of interest might be limited to a mortgage of $500,000 used to purchase a home, but not any for a second home. In addition, the deduction of equity line of credit interest may be eliminated (no one knows what will be grandfathered, so better to have a line in place than to wait). Higher bracket taxpayers may see the deductions converted into a 12% credit.
Something of a surprise, given the push over the last ten years or more to increase personal savings, the deductions for retirement contributions may be cut back, lowering the ceiling and amount of the contributions that will be allowed for 401(k), IRA, Keogh, SEP-IRAs, profit-sharing plans and so on. Similarly, flex plan and health savings accounts may be curtailed or repealed.

We will continue to monitor the information on tax reform, and post updates when appropriate.

Any changes that are this sweeping will require serious tax planning, so that should be on your “to do” list for this fall!