China’s economy, the stock market and politics


(worried about investing?)

So far this year, checking your investment account balances could lead to an upset stomach, or worse. You are better off watching the historically unusual 2016 presidential campaigns. That way, you have enough to distract you from making a bad investment decision … even if Donald Trump or others upset your stomach.

What would a bad decision be? Here are several worries you may have, stated as “oh no,” along with a description of the potential bad investment decision:

“Oh no, stocks are too risky, I’m moving my money over bonds instead” – a.k.a., changing your portfolio allocation

If you (and your advisors) constructed a good long-term portfolio, then stick to the allocation in your portfolio. At present, the return on most bonds is less than the rate of inflation, after income taxes. The return on money markets is even less. So, unless you have amassed huge sums, you need the stock market returns to reach your financial goals.

That means you have to stay in stocks, and ride out the current downturn.

“But does that work?”

Let’s take the last big market dive of 2008 as an example. Measuring stock performance from 2008 through 2012, “the S&P 500 generated a cumulative return of 8.6 percent.”   See Went to Cash? Here’s the next Big Mistake You’ll Make.

Have you seen any bonds paying 8.6%?

“No.”

I didn’t think so.

True, there are alternate investments, such as hedge funds, precious metals, commodities and raw materials, which could perform better than bonds. However, each has different risks and expenses, and some of these have high barriers to entry. If any of these investments do belong in your portfolio, they are there to balance your other investments, which must still include stocks.

“Oh no, investing is too risky, I’m putting my savings in cash for now” – a.k.a., attempting to time the market

Pulling out of the market when it goes down and then putting all that cash back in just before it goes back up sounds great. However, the problem with market timing is no one can do it. Looking at 2008 through 2012, “If an investor missed the 36 percent drop in the S&P 500 in 2008 — or even worse, bailed on the markets mid-carnage — they probably also missed the 26 percent gain in the S&P 500 in 2009, and the next three positive years for the index that followed. See Went to Cash? Here’s the next Big Mistake You’ll Make.

So, you are thinking that 2008 to 2012 is an aberration.

“Yes, I still want to move to cash.”

 Then consider 1970 to 2016, where, if you missed just the best 25 days out of 11,620 trading days, “your returns would have gone from 1,910% to 371%, or [from] 6.7% a year to 3.4%. To give you an idea of how lousy that is, 1-month U.S. T-bills returned 4.9% over the same period.” See How missing out on 25 days in the stock market over 45 years costs you dearly.

The challenge of timing the market is capturing the best days. However, Nobel laureate William Sharpe “found that market timers must be right an incredible 82% of the time just to match the returns realized by buy-and-hold investors.” See Why you should stay in the stock market.

Are you that lucky?

“No.”

“Oh no, China is a total mess, this time is different, I’m am getting out of stocks forever” – a.k.a., attempting predict the future

True, the slowing of the Chinese economy is causing economic problems worldwide. But, in terms of the impact on stock markets worldwide, that is not dramatically different from the 1987 crash, only then it was Japan.

“Yes, but my friends are selling stocks …”

Did you know that the individual investor is a contrary indicator for the stock market?

“What does that mean?”

Historically, when individual investors are selling, that is a market low, a good time to invest. Similarly, when individual investors are putting everything into the stock market, that is a market peak and a time to sell the over-priced stocks.

By the time you realize that you are mistaken, you will have missed much needed performance. For emphasis, consider this:

From 1990 to 2005 a $10,000 investment would have grown to $51,354 had you just sat tight from beginning to end. However, if you had missed the best 10 days in that 15-year period, your returns would have dwindled to $31,994; if you had missed the best 30 days, you’d be looking at a mere $15,730. Why you should stay in the stock market.

Oh no, investing is too risky, I put my savings in cash” a.k.a., thinking short-term, another argument for going to cash

he stock market has to be risky, otherwise there would be no reward for investing.

“But I like cash!”

Cash is not volatile, but it is still “risky” – the return on cash – the interest earned – is less than the rate of inflation. Over time, investing only in cash puts you far behind, while long-term investing reduces the risks of stocks. The key is, you have to withstand the downturns to gain from the upturns:

A study by SEI Investments reviewed all the bear markets since World War II. According to the study, reported in The Wall Street Journal, stocks rose an average of 32.5% in the 12 months following the bear-market bottom. Yet, if you missed the bottom by just a week, that return fell to 24.3%. Waiting three months after the market turned cut your gain to less than 15%. Why you should stay in the stock market.

“Oh no, I need money to buy a house” – a.k.a., having the wrong investment strategy

What was your short-term investment doing in the market in the first place?

“I need my money to double so I can buy my dream house!”

Sorry, if you need that much then your dream is wrong.

For the stock market, anything less than 5 years is “short term.” If you have money set aside for a vacation, new car or other major purchase, like a house, those funds need to be invested more conservatively, taking less risk. Otherwise, while you could double your money in a couple of years, you could also end up with much less.

“Oh yes!” a.k.a., the conclusion, an important message – don’t forget it:

After watching investors for several decades, I know this to be true: you must create a good investment strategy and stick to it for it to work.

Even if do not have an optimum strategy, your investments will perform far better than someone who keeps altering their strategy.

“But the fund I have didn’t do as well as another fund last year, so I am selling ….”

Chasing after the last year’s star mutual fund usually works out poorly. You sell your current fund, paying fees and taxes, to buy the star fund, only to watch its performance return to the mean. Disappointed, you then sell the new star fund to chase another star performer, only repeat the same mistake with fees and taxes. After you repeat this a few times, you could end up with negative returns while someone who simply a bought and held a mediocre fund will have substantial gains.

If your investment strategy is better than mediocre, and it includes stocks, stick with it!

“Okay, I will.”

Good, the future you, sitting on a beach sipping drinks with paper umbrellas, will be so glad you did!

China’s currency devaluation, the stock market correction and Powerball

Recent news headlines could drive you crazy:

China’s currency devaluation and fears of slower worldwide growth lead to a stock market correction;

North Korea claims to have detonated an H-bomb, but the US says “we don’t believe you”; and

Powerball hits a record $1.5 billion prize.

However, just as the record size of the Powerball jackpot is no cause to buy lottery tickets, the January jolt to stocks is no cause to deviate from your long-term investment plan … although it is wise to brace yourself for what is likely to be a choppy market ride in the new year.

Abby Joseph Cohen, president of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Global Markets Institute says, this is “the S&P 500’s worst-ever start to a year [sending] the index down 7.5 percent in 2016, near lows seen during a rout over the summer.” See “Goldman Sees 11% Upside in S&P 500 After ‘Emotional’ Selloff” in Bloomberg News, January 14, 2016.

Ms. Cohen goes on to say, “What is happening is really very much an emotional response … We need to put things into perspective. Stocks are probably the best place to be.”

I agree. Predictions of a US major recession, let alone a full market collapse, have not come to pass.

In fact, US GDP has grown for all but one quarter since the end of 2011 and unemployment is down to 5%; US Dept. of Labor consumer price index is near 0% – as a measure of inflation. CIT Voice of the Middle Market, where 59% of the middle market corporate managers think that the best way to judge economy is to observe economic stability of their community, says that its 71% of the group say their companies are strong and 57% say they doing better than last year.

Yes, China’s growth is cooling down to a still very robust 6.5%. But China probably had to devalue currency to continue that growth.

Its stock market should have seen the stimulus as favorable but so many market investors in China are individuals with a short-term horizon that they could have been more concerned with buying power of their wealth and sold off their holdings. The more important long-term issues are the impact of China’s increasing debt and the impact of China’s devaluation on emerging markets.

Meanwhile, the US dollar remains strong, keeping gold prices down, and US corporate balance sheets are healthy, many having cash to raise dividends.

We remain in the third longest bull market in US history. And everything I read, from very optimistic articles to predictions of a crash, ends with something like “stick with high quality holdings.”

Some authors say this because they seek dividends, for income. But, with the Powerball in mind, I translate this to:

Short-term plays in the stock market are purely speculative, so if you want to grow your portfolio, stay out of that betting game.

You can buy a lottery ticket if you want to be speculative.

I conclude with these reminders you can chant as you read headlines on the stock market or watch TV news:

News headlines are not about me,

I won’t panic because I have a good investment plan, and

I will maintain a long-term perspective and stick to my plan

That worked well in 2008. Sticking to a long-term plan meant you participated when the market shot back up almost 10% in January of 2009.

Let me know if you want to share your comments and concerns.

Seven Deadly Sins of investing

The single most important risk to a portfolio of investments is a poorly defined or constantly changing strategy. You must have a long-term approach to which you adhere over time regardless of the current favor of the particular strategy. You will need to resist the psychological pressures of investing:

Consider these “seven deadly sins of investing”:

  • //gluttony//– hoarding cash when you should invest or evaluating by only one category when you should look at the big picture;
  • //greed//– looking for big winnings when time and patience pay off;
  • //pride//– not selling your losers or old, familiar holdings when a new idea is better;
  • //lust//– listening to the information barrage and adjusting your portfolio constantly rather than filtering it out to stick with a plan;
  • //envy//– chasing fads or looking at a friend who has “winners”, making investing look more like gambling, when actually you should sell your best and buy trailing but good positions (as in the “dogs of the Dow” technique);
  • //anger//– not forgiving yourself for mistakes and moving on; and
  • //sloth//– changing beliefs to fit your decisions or portfolio rather than applying the lesson that you should review a portfolio intellectually and objectively and decide if you would still buy the holdings today.

You should review your asset allocation at least annually. A stock market rise will leave you over-weighted in stocks, meaning that you should sell out of stocks and buy into bonds and cash to maintain the allocation. If the stock market goes down, you should do the reverse. In fact, you should sell from your better mutual fund managers and buy the managers that have not done as well recently because those excelling and those lagging are both likely to return to the mean over time. Reallocating may seem wrong, especially when bond yields are low and CD rates are low. Nonetheless, history tells us to override the psychological urges, take “profits” from those currently doing well, and re-deploy them with assets that are more likely to provide future returns.

Adhering to a sensible investment strategy is how money is made over time. You may feel that you missed out compared to someone who is all in the right stocks now. However, you will also be glad to miss out when that person’s holdings go down faster than the market and you have non-stock investments that increase in value. Also, when there is a new influx of capital, you need to have a strategy so you can sensibly filter the barrage of information from people wanting to help you handle you finances.

The real problem facing retirement plans? Not saving enough

Recently, two debates have been brewing over 401(k) plans. Specifically, are they too expensive and should we cap the amount Americans can accumulate in the total balance of their defined benefit and defined contribution plans as well as IRAs. Is that really where the debate should be?
A recent PBS.org retirement study revealed some alarming statistics about Americans’ retirement savings habits. Specifically 30% of workers have $0.00 in retirement savings and 40% are currently not saving anything for retirement. Even factoring in Social Security, the average savings shortfall of a U.S. household will be $250,000 at retirement.
For many, if they are contributing to their retirement plans, they are contributing too little. The current belief that contributing just enough to maximize an employer’s contribution will fund your retirement is irresponsible. Only a small number of Americans will amass $1million in their retirement plans by the time they retire. According to Don Phillips in his recent Morningstar article, Fighting the Wrong War, “At a 4% withdrawal rate, $1 million in savings will provide just $40,000 a year.”
While the cost of the plans and amount we can accumulate in our retirement plans can be interesting debates, they don’t address the real issue. Will we, as future retirees, be able to fund our own retirement?

Planning for the inevitable – online end-of-life services

What would happen if today were your last day? How would your survivors know how to administer your estate? Even if you have a will, would the personal representative or executor of your will know where to find your life insurance policy, estate documents, and the passwords to your accounts? There are many ways you can plan for this inevitable event and provide your survivors with the support they need to carry out your wishes.

In recent years, new websites have been created for end-of-life planning and documents storage like www.AfterSteps.com and www.principledheart.com. These websites provide a one-stop solution where you can store all your end-of-life documents, from wills and trusts to instructions for basic matters like cancelling your cellphone plan, or to lists storing all you passwords. These websites also organize your asset information and communicate relevant information to your beneficiaries at death.

Of course, whenever you store sensitive information online, you have to be able to trust that the service provider will keep your information secure. Generally, these websites provide bank-level security and encryption services, but as you well know, even the most “secure” websites can be vulnerable. You have to weigh the convenience these websites provide against the risk of having your account compromised.

If an online solution does not work for you, you can always choose a more traditional route. There are resources available, such as the “What if…” workbook that can help you formulate your plan. Alternatively, you can compile a binder with all of your instructions, passwords and estate documents and store your binder in a secure location, either in paper form or as an encrypted document (and be certain to communicate that location).

Whatever you choose, it is important to discuss with your estate planner to determine the best solution is for you. In the end, you want a choice that provides peace of mind for you and clarity for your survivors.